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Climate Change is Reshaping Rainfall Patterns in the Nordics

Dr. Rasmus Benestad's latest study reveals how climate change is intensifying rainfall patterns in the Nordic region, with fewer rainy days but much heavier downpours. This research highlights the urgent need for climate action and offers vital insights for improving infrastructure, urban planning, and disaster management to adapt to these changes.
Written by
Three o'clock
Published on
January 16, 2025

The Nordic region is no stranger to rainfall, but climate change is altering the way it arrives, falls, and impacts our communities. Dr. Rasmus Benestad, a climate scientist at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and a key contributor to the SPRINGS project, has published a study that examines how global warming is transforming rainfall patterns in the region.

By applying innovative statistical techniques, Dr. Benestad translated global climate models (CMIP6) into detailed, localised projections for the Nordic region. His findings provide critical insights into the future of rainfall intensity and frequency, equipping governments, planners, and communities with the knowledge needed to adapt to these changes.

Key findings

  1. Rainfall is becoming more intense: While the number of rainy days may remain stable or even decrease slightly, when it does rain, the intensity is expected to rise significantly. This intensification poses challenges for infrastructure, natural ecosystems, and flood management systems.
  2. The role of emissions: Higher greenhouse gas emissions are directly linked to more intense rainfall. This highlights the pressing need for climate action to reduce emissions and mitigate these impacts.
  3. Regional disparities: Some areas are more affected than others. Norway's west coast is likely to face the most heavy rainfall, while northern Finland could experience the largest increase in extreme rainfall events.

Implications for the Nordic region

These findings have wide-ranging implications for agriculture, urban planning, and disaster risk management across the Nordic countries. Understanding how rainfall patterns are shifting allows for better preparation and planning, reducing the risks posed by a wetter and less predictable climate.

Dr. Benestad’s work is ongoing. Future research will explore seasonal rainfall trends and integrate findings with regional climate models, further advancing our understanding of how to build resilience in the face of a changing climate.

You can access the full study: https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/29/45/2025/

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